This is what i wrote about here a few days. Aipac lost big . Im going Sunday to the conference but sure wondering
How AIPAC Is Losing
Chuck Hagel will be secretary of Defense, and Iran will go nuclear. So much for an all-powerful Israel Lobby.
By Lee Smith|February 27, 2013 12:00 AM
This weekend, more than 10,000 pro-Israel activists, Jews and non-Jews alike, will gather at the Washington convention center for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s annual policy conference [1]. These friends and supporters of the U.S.-Israel bilateral relationship will hear from members of Congress and the executive branch who will all testify to the singular influence that AIPAC, as the pillar of the pro-Israel community, wields in the capital of the free world.
But just how powerful is AIPAC if a man who refers to it as the “Jewish lobby” and has defiantly claimed that he is not an “Israeli senator” is slated to be our next secretary of Defense? And, most significantly, how much influence does the lobbying organization actually exercise if it can’t carry the day on the single issue that’s been at the very top of its agenda for over a decade: stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
Despite an operating budget [2] of more than $60 million, on the most crucial issue facing Israel’s security, AIPAC has lost the policy debate. The winners include those who believe you can’t stop a nation from getting the bomb if it’s determined to do so, those who think the Iranians have a right to nuclear weapons, and those who argue the Iranians can be contained—among them, our new Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel.
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For the past two months, those invested in the Israel-U.S. relationship have been fixated on whether or not Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel would fundamentally alter U.S. policy toward Israel. In addition to his revealing statements about Jews, the former senator from Nebraska voted against sanctioning Iran and against designating the Revolutionary Guards Corps a terrorist organization.
Yet AIPAC has remained totally mum. The group says [3] it focuses its energies on matters of policy rather than personnel. If it campaigned against Hagel, where would it stop? The organization would potentially have to take a position on every Cabinet nominee. Meantime, in the absence of AIPAC, other pro-Israel organizations have come out publicly against Hagel, like the Emergency Committee for Israel. For taking the lead on this issue [4], they have been labeled partisans, while AIPAC has preserved its bipartisan status.
But it’s not clear how much that label matters when a very influential segment of the Democratic party has made it plain that supporting Israel isn’t a top priority. I’m not just referring to the delegates who booed pro-Israel changes to the party platform on the floor of the convention in San Antonio last summer. I’m talking about the White House.
Pro-Israel Obama supporters on the Hill and in the press keep trying to make the case that in spite of how it might look on the surface, the administration cares deeply about the U.S.-Israel relationship. They point to the success [5] of Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile defense batteries as evidence that the security and military cooperation between the United States and Israel has reached unprecedented highs under Obama’s stewardship. But politics is mostly about how things look. And if the administration really cared that much about Israel, it wouldn’t nominate a secretary of defense who referred to defenders of the U.S.-Israel relationship as “the Jewish lobby.”
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The paradox is that by giving personnel a pass, AIPAC has lost the policy debate. Policy is made by people who believe in certain ideas, principles, and even fantasies. What Hagel seems to have learned from his tours of combat in Vietnam is that it is a fantasy to imagine that you can bomb a country into submitting to the will of the United States. Presumably, this is why he also opposed the war in Iraq. The problem is that deconstructing such a fantasy does not necessarily leave you with reality. In Hagel’s case it has left him only with an equally dangerous fantasy: that instead of waging war, it is possible to reach an accommodation, if not an amicable understanding, with nations that have clearly identified themselves as adversaries.
This fantasy is shared by much of the U.S. policymaking elite, including Obama. Indeed, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution every White House has sought comity with the Iranians. The fact that all, including Obama, have failed, is proof that the endeavor is not possible. From this perspective, it is also clear that Western sanctions against Iran and the secret war conducted against Iranian scientists and installations are intended less to destroy the nuclear program than to prolong the fantasy that at some point the Iranians will come to their senses and abandon their search for a bomb. It is noteworthy that the majority of the American electorate does not share this fantasy, with a Pew poll last year showing that 58 percent support [6] U.S. military action against the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
But AIPAC—and this 58 percent majority—lost the debate to a host of adversaries. Some on the winning side argued for engagement. Among these were the stars of the policy pantheon, like former Secretary of State Jim Baker [7], and former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who argued [7] that a combination of incentives and pressures might get the Iranians to the table.
And if Iran didn’t want to negotiate, some claimed that wasn’t such a big deal anyway. As Jimmy Carter’s National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski has said [8], it’s no problem containing Iran. Journalists like Fareed Zakaria agreed [9]. Some went even further, arguing [10] that Iran was in fact a natural American ally. More extreme yet in their efforts were the single-minded obsessives, the creeps, like Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett, and Trita Parsi, who argued [11] that in fact the problem was not with Iran but with the United States.
If, as Hagel has said, the Jewish lobby truly intimidated “a lot of people up here,” you’d expect to see Washington all humming the same tune on Iran. Instead, it’s the Iranians calling the shots. “You must raise the level of your tolerance,” the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization recently told the West. “Try to find ways for cooperation with a country that is moving towards technological progress.”
The Iranian negotiating team meeting [12] with its Western counterparts in Kazakhstan this week has earned the right to its smugness. The Iranians are installing equipment that will allow it to accelerate the production of nuclear fuel. And then there was North Korea’s nuclear test two weeks ago. At the very least, it signaled to the Iranians that in the end, despite all of the tough talk coming from the White House, the Americans are not going to stop the Iranians from acquiring the bomb.
Tehran has the upper hand in negotiations because it recognizes that all the White House wants is some sort of deal it can sell as a victory. And the all-powerful pro-Israel lobby has no choice but to swallow it and smile.
John Podhoretz
Yesterday’s Senate stunner — a filibuster blocking President Obama’s nominee to head the Defense Department — isn’t the final act in this drama. At least two Republicans say they’ll let Chuck Hagel’s nomination go through later in the month — provided no new shoes drop.
But that’s not such a good bet.
The case against Hagel is coming together like a pointillist painting, with data points like tiny dots that join to form a distressing overall portrait of a disreputable whole.
The latest dot is a talk he gave at Rutgers University in March 2007, uncovered by Alana Goodman of the Washington Free Beacon. A friendly blogger covered the talk the next day, noting — with approval — that Hagel had said the State Department was under the control of Israel.
REUTERS
Embarassed yet? Schumer, here at a Senate hearing Tuesday, must reckon with new reports of dumb anti-Israel remarks from Chuck Hagel.
“The State Department,” the blogger quoted Hagel as saying, “has become adjunct to the Israeli Foreign Minister’s office.”
This should be disturbing for two reasons. First, like many other data points emerging since Hagel’s nomination, this one emits a faint but distinct odor of a classic anti-Semitic stereotype — Jews as secret marionetteers, pulling the strings of unsuspecting Gentiles.
Second, it should trouble everyone who must vote to confirm Hagel — because the remark is spectacularly stupid.
The notion that the State Department, of all places, might be a servant of Israel is among the most bizarre and ludicrous statements any notable American politician has ever uttered. Historically, as anyone who knows anything knows, State has been unfriendly toward Israel.
There are many reasons for this bias, so I’ll go with the least offensive: Our diplomatic corps must deal with 22 Arab nations and one Jewish state that angers its 22 neighbors. So it’s not much of a surprise that State would have an institutional bias in favor of the region’s supermajority.
In the George W. Bush administration, which was unquestionably the friendliest to Israel in history, it was the State Department’s leaders who expressed the greatest degree of skepticism about Israel’s intentions and the need to rein in Israel’s responses to the terror war launched against it by Yasser Arafat in late 2000.
At the time Hagel made his gobsmacking remark about State and Israel, Condoleezza Rice had taken charge at State. She’d first served as Bush’s national security adviser — but the move to Foggy Bottom actually led her to adopt her new institution’s bias against Israel — as her former White House deputy, Elliott Abrams (my brother-in-law), details in his remarkable new account of those years, “Tested By Zion.”
The news of Hagel’s 2007 remark is also a direct challenge to the New Yorker who, more than anyone, made it appear that Hagel’s journey to the Pentagon was a sure thing.
I’m referring to Sen. Chuck Schumer, whose endorsement of Hagel after a 90-minute meeting seemed to take the wind out of the sails of those who thought the nominee’s various offhand comments over the decades about Jews and Israel and the United States might disqualify him.
What will Schumer do now?
In February 2010, at a New York event sponsored by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, I heard Schumer give a rather extraordinary speech. In Hebrew, he told the crowd, his name would be “shomer,” or “guardian.”
A shomer, he noted, was a watchman guarding the gates of ancient Jerusalem and the Temple. And that was his mission: defending the Jewish people and Israel from those who’d attack it or wish it ill.
It’s a few weeks since Schumer gave Hagel the thumbs-up. Give him the benefit of the doubt; maybe Hagel told him the things he wanted to hear. Schumer supports the president, who wants Hagel; the president should have the Pentagon nominee he wants. (That is a view, by the way, with which I agree almost all the time.)
But Schumer’s support came before this poisonous pearl (and others) surfaced. And before Hagel’s disastrous confirmation hearing, when it appeared the trouble with his nomination wasn’t only some problematic views, but also his intellectual fitness for this crucial job.
That was then, this is now.
Schumer’s job, as we know, is to serve the Constitution and the people of New York. A man who could say something as stupid as Hagel did about Israel controlling the State Department is not fit to be defense secretary.
Schumer’s personal mission, or so he told 2,000 people at the Marriott Marquis in February 2010, is to serve as a guardian of the Jewish people. Mind you, this is Schumer’s claim about himself; I’m not imposing it upon him. Assuming he wasn’t just, oh, blowing smoke for campaign contributions, one must ask: How does such a guardian vote for a man who traffics in anti-Semitic cliches?
Nu, Shomer?